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Why Selling on the Open Market is Just a Flip of a Coin

Selling on the open market is a gamble. You’re effectively handing over your keys and agreeing to a coin toss. Heads, it sells. Tails, it doesn't.

Daniel Marsden, Head of Partnerships

We’ve all been told the same story. The estate agent turns up in their shiny car, smiles warmly and assures you that the open market is the sensible choice. It looks safe, it feels normal and for decades it’s been sold as the obvious way to go. Lawyers and charity teams believe this too – why wouldn’t you? 

But here’s the truth: it isn’t safe at all. Selling on the open market is a gamble. You’re effectively handing over your keys and agreeing to a coin toss. Heads, it sells. Tails, it drags on for months, collapses or never completes at all.

The numbers don’t lie. Around half of properties listed never sell with an estate agent. One in four “done deals” collapse before exchange of contracts. And the average sale drags on for well over six months. If this was any other financial product, people would run a mile. If it was surgery, you wouldn’t be saying yes to that procedure! But because it’s wrapped in ‘the very best marketing’, words of assurance and the fact that “we’ve always done it this way,” the risk is hidden in plain sight.

“Estate agency has done a clever trick. It’s taken the riskiest possible way of selling – stick it on the market, hope for a buyer, drag it through months of legals – and dressed it up to look safe.”

This is where our brains betray us. We’re wired to avoid risk. It’s why we still jump at the sound of a sudden bang or tense up when we sense danger. But our modern brains have been tricked. Estate agents have made the riskiest option look like the safe one. “Test the market.” “Sell for more.” “Strong local demand.” These lines are repeated so often they pass as fact, when in reality they’re smoke and mirrors.

Compare that to auction. The difference is night and day. Auctions achieve a 98%+ sell-through rate. The legal pack is ready upfront. Completion happens in seven to nine weeks, start to finish. Compare that to a UK average of 27+ weeks with the High Street. That’s not a coin flip. That’s certainty. Families get closure, charities receive their funds, and everyone can move forward without months of stress hanging over them.

Probate property makes this even more important. These homes are often unmodernised or compromised. They don’t fit the “perfect buyer” estate agents dream of. Families who have just lost someone don’t need a drawn-out, six-month gamble – they need speed and clarity. And charities simply cannot afford to wait. Every month of delay is another month without the funds that hospices, animal shelters or children’s charities desperately need.

“When the property side drags, the cause drags with it.”

And that’s what frustrates me most. Because the danger isn’t just in the delay. It’s in the illusion of safety. People think the open market is the “grown-up” choice. It looks respectable. It looks measured. But if you strip it back, it’s nothing more than a coin toss with a family’s inheritance. It’s the status quo with the industry too – get three agents to look at it and decide. That’s just not good enough, especially when the best route for selling unmodernised property for the most £££ is auction

If you wouldn’t take half your pension and bet it on red at a casino, why risk the same with probate property? If you wouldn’t risk your job security on a coin toss, why accept the exact same odds from an estate agent who promises you “record-breaking” results?

“Selling a probate property on the open market is a gamble. A coin toss. A game where the house – literally – rarely wins.”

Auctions aren’t the gamble. They’re the alternative to gambling. They’re the safe option dressed up in plain clothes – speed, certainty and finality in a world full of risk and delay.

So the next time you hear “test the market” or “we’ll sell for more with an agent,” remember what’s really being offered. Not certainty. Not safety. Just a coin toss.

And when families and charities are relying on you to do the right thing, flipping a coin should never be good enough.

To discuss how selling your property by auction could be the right move for you, email hello@probate.auction and speak to one of our expert team members.

Who we work with:

Executors, Administrators, Solicitors and the Family and Beneficiaries of the Deceased.